- Mapping the present and future risk of tick-borne Lyme Disease in Vermont, USA based on habitat and climactic suitability of Ixodes scapularis
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Abstract:
- Lyme Disease is now the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the USA and its potential climate change-driven expansion poses a large public health concern. The abundance of its main vector, Ixodes scapularis (black-legged tick) is largely dependent on suitable habitats and climate, so tick suitability can effectively predict Lyme Disease risk spatially. This study took a high resolution approach to account for local heterogeneity of habitats, choosing Vermont for its high prevalence. Parameters of environmental suitability were quantified in a risk map algorithm in GIS and statistically calibrated using previous incidence data, to display areas of suitable Ixodes scapularis habitat in Vermont. Recreational areas were incorporated to pinpoint where humans are exposed to Lyme Disease risk. Future climate projections and host availability predicted future areas of Ixodes scapularis colonisation with climactic changes, finding risk areas in Vermont to increase up to 45% by 2100. High risk recreational areas were highlighted to target interventions and ultimately reduce the incidence and economic impact of Lyme Disease in Vermont. The model could be adapted for use elsewhere, such as at the ranges of Ixodes scapularis expansion, to mitigate future endemics.
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